Does Progressive Blackjack Betting Work

Progressive Blackjack is a standard version of Blackjack that has an optional side bet, usually costing £1/€1/$1 depending on the currency you are using. Whilst the important thing is to get as close to 21 as possible without going over, the same as standard Blackjack, the Progressive Jackpot side bet can give you a much bigger win than. Question from a Reader regarding the Martingale Betting System: I lost a substantial amount of my savings playing blackjack at casino name deleted in Atlantic City — almost $30,000. I admit that I was using a progressive betting system — a straight martingale, and I know that won’t give me any advantage — but even so, I feel pretty. Many players feel that playing multiple hands increases their odds of winning. Playing multiple spots can be exciting, but it does absolutely nothing to increase your win rate. Most of these systems fall under the heading of progressive bets. While these are among the most common, they are by no means the only strategies out there.

With the emergence of online casinos, gambling buffs have the chance to win themselves huge progressive jackpots without stepping out of their homes. Back in the day when the first virtual casinos went online, progressive jackpots were reserved exclusively for slot fans. This is no longer the case thanks to leading casino software studios like Playtech, WGS Technology, and Microgaming that have launched online blackjack variants with progressives pots just waiting to be won.

1. Bonus
   ⋆80 Free Spins
2. Bonus
   $300
3. $500
   $600

These enormous prizes give the traditional game of blackjack an exciting twist and are available across many prominent casinos on the internet that use the platforms of the above-mentioned software suppliers. All you have to do is create a real-money account, make a deposit, and take your chances at winning the progressive prize. In this article, we explain how progressive blackjack works and introduce you to three of the most popular variants of 21 where you can win yourself a nice jackpot.

Progressive Blackjack – How Does It Work?

Progressive blackjack games follow the same rules as the standard variations of the classic card game. The players’ objective is again to obtain a hand total higher than the dealer’s. The only difference here is these blackjack games are linked to a progressive jackpot network. All participating players can contribute to the growing pot with optional side bets so the prize keeps increasing until someone is lucky enough to bag it.

Once the progressive jackpot is won, it resets and starts accumulating all over again, usually from a fixed amount called a seed. This seed amount is normally provided by the game’s software supplier and serves as an incentive for players to start betting again after the jackpot is won. Some online progressive blackjack games start seeding at $10,000, others at $50,000. The interface of each progressive game features a jackpot meter where the current amount of the jackpot is displayed.

Progressive Blackjack Additional TipsOther than that, progressive blackjack uses the same interface and gameplay as the standard online variants of 21. You choose your preferred chip denomination and click on your betting box to place a wager. Then you hit the Deal button to have your cards dealt and play out your hand as you normally would, having a choice from the usual playing options of standing, hitting, splitting, buying insurance, and doubling.

If you beat the dealer, the amount you have won is instantly credited to your real-money balance. The games operate on random number generators, which ensures unbiased results and equal chances of winning the pot for everyone.

Main Bets and Side Bets in Progressive Blackjack Games

Depending on the software developer supplying the game, players may be required to post a side bet to qualify for potentially winning the progressive prize. This bet is in no way linked to their main bet and has no effect on the odds of them winning a hand. Each time a player posts the side bet, it is added to the pot so that it keeps on growing until somebody wins.

The side bet is small in size, usually no more than $1 or the equivalent in the currency the player uses. It pays out for certain combinations of cards but the exact combination again depends on the software supplier. In Microgaming’s version of progressive blackjack, the pot hits when you obtain a specific hand of 7s whereas Playtech’s variation awards a portion of the pot or the whole pot for given combinations of suited and unsuited Aces.

Main Bets and Side Bets in Progressive Blackjack Games Additional TipsIt is worth mentioning that making the side bet is not obligatory. You can skip on that and play the game as you would play any standard blackjack variation. However, if you obtain the card combination that triggers the jackpot, the prize will not be awarded to you without the side bet. A winning hand will return the standard low payout instead.

The payouts for the regular winning hands are the same as those in standard blackjack variants. Blackjacks award the usual payout of 3 to 2 while all other non-busted winning hands pay even money. Insurance, which is another side bet, is also offered when the virtual dealer’s exposed card is an Ace. Assuming the dealer’s hole card has a value of ten, the insurance side bet wins at odds of 2 to 1.

One important thing worth bearing in mind is that progressive blackjack games usually have an outrageous house edge which is significantly higher than that in normal variants of 21. The return to player in progressive blackjack changes in parallel with the constantly growing jackpot.

The pot needs to exceed a certain amount in order for the side bet to become a break-even wager. In many cases, the jackpot hits before the said break-even point is reached so you basically end up playing a game with a higher house edge in vain. In some instances, the edge is as high as that of the lottery.

Best Online Blackjack Games with Progressive Pots

Unlike reel spinners, blackjack mavens do not have as many options when it comes to playing progressive variations of their favorite game. There are but a few blackjack games attached to progressive networks at the moment and we have hand-picked the three that offer the best playing experience and decent enough rules.

Progressive Blackjack by Playtech

Playtech’s is easily our favorite progressive blackjack variation particularly in terms of visual presentation and gameplay. Its appeal is further boosted by the fact it yields an average progressive prize of more than $170,000. This is an S17 hole-card game which plays with six standard decks.

Players can double on any two-card total after the initial deal and split any pair of identically ranked cards. Doubling down after you split is possible but re-splitting is not permitted. The virtual dealer peeks and offers insurance against an exposed Ace at the usual odds of 2 to 1.

Real-money players qualify for winning the progressive jackpot after placing the $1 side bet. The side bet is successful when you get dealt one or more Aces. You can see the progressive payouts listed below:

• One Ace pays 5x the initial bet
• Two unsuited Aces pay 50x the initial bet
• Two suited Aces pay 100x the original bet
• Three unsuited Aces pay 250x the initial stake
• Four unsuited Aces pay 2,500 the initial stake
• Three suited Aces pay 5,000x your original bet
• Four suited Aces award the full progressive jackpot amount

Note that these prizes are awarded only of the Aces are dealt consecutively on a given hand. Players who are eyeing the progressive pot should adjust their strategy a little bit and refrain from splitting Aces when they post the side bet. The odds of receiving four suited Aces in a six-deck game are not in your favor, though. The likelihood of this happening stands at 1 in 6.45 million. The side bet offers positive expectation after the pot exceeds the amount of $581,000.

Progressive Triple Sevens Blackjack by Microgaming

Microgaming is one of the oldest developers of quality casino content in this industry, so it makes sense it was also the first studio to introduce a progressive blackjack game to the online gambling community. The game in question is called Triple Sevens Blackjack, uses five decks of cards, and requires the dealer to stand on soft 17. You can split only once and double down on initial totals of 9 through 11 but doubling after a split is not an option.

The progressive jackpot is again triggered with the help of a small ($1) optional side bet. To win the whole prize or a portion of it, the player must receive one of the qualifying combinations of 7s. Here are the progressive payouts for this game:

• Any 7 awards $5
• Two unsuited 7s award $25
• Two suited 7s award $50
• Three consecutive unsuited 7s return a payout of $250
• Three 7s of spades, clubs or hearts award $1,000
• Three 7s of diamonds award the full progressive jackpot

More experienced blackjack players probably know that basic strategy stipulates they must split a pair of 7s against small dealer upcards like 4, 5, or 6. Splitting your 7s, however, is counterproductive in this progressive blackjack variant, particularly when you post the side bet. This pair automatically rewards you either with a $25 payout for off-suit 7s or with a $50 payout for suited 7s. So you will have to deviate from basic strategy if you are shooting for the progressive pot.

This Microgaming creation awards an average win of nearly $74,000 which drops roughly once every fourteen months. The side bet gives you positive expectation once the progressive prize exceeds $109,000.

Progressive Blackjack by WGS Technology

WGS Technology (formerly Vegas Technology) may not be as big as suppliers the likes of Microgaming and Playtech, but it still delivers an incredibly playable progressive blackjack variation where you can win big. This S17 game is available in demo mode in some casinos that use the WGS software so you can easily test it in advance before you try to take the big pot down with real bets.

It uses four decks and features an elegant visual design which further increases the enjoyment of playing it. To stand a chance of winning the progressive prize, you must place a $1 chip as a side bet alongside your main wager. The jackpot is again triggered when the player is dealt several consecutive Aces. Check the payouts below:

• Two unsuited Aces pay out $25
• Two suited Aces pay out $50
• Three unsuited Aces award a payout of $250
• Three suited Aces return a payout of $2,500
• Four unsuited Aces award 10% of the progressive prize
• Four suited Aces award the full progressive jackpot amount

Of course, placing the side bet is not obligatory, you can choose to play WGS’ progressive blackjack as a regular game of 21. Underbankrolled players can start experimenting with the side bet when it approaches positive expectation, which happens when the pot reaches $285,000 or so.

Introduction

Not only do betting systems fail to beat casino games with a house advantage, they can’t even dent it. Roulette balls and dice simply have no memory. Every spin in roulette and every toss in craps is independent of all past events. In the short run, you can fool yourself into thinking a betting system works, by risking a lot to win a little. However, in the long run no betting system can withstand the test of time. The longer you play, the ratio of money lost to money bet will get closer to the expectation for that game.

In the many years that run this site, I have received thousands of e-mails from believers in betting systems. Their faith surpasses religious levels. However, in all things, the more ridiculous a belief is the more tenaciously it tends to be held. Gamblers have been looking for a betting system that works for hundreds of years, and yet the casinos are still standing.

Gambler's Fallacy

The biggest gambling myth is that an event that has not happened recently becomes overdue and more likely to occur. This is known as the “gambler’s fallacy.” Thousands of gamblers have devised betting systems that attempt to exploit the gambler’s fallacy by betting the opposite way of recent outcomes. For example, waiting for three reds in roulette and then betting on black. Hucksters sell “guaranteed” get-rich-quick betting systems that are ultimately based on the gambler’s fallacy. None of them work. If you don’t believe me here is what some other sources say on the topic:

A common gamblers’ fallacy called “the doctrine of the maturity of the chances” (or “Monte Carlo fallacy”) falsely assumes that each play in a game of chance is not independent of the others and that a series of outcomes of one sort should be balanced in the short run by other possibilities. A number of “systems” have been invented by gamblers based largely on this fallacy; casino operators are happy to encourage the use of such systems and to exploit any gambler’s neglect of the strict rules of probability and independent plays. — Encyclopedia Britannica (look under “gambling”)

No betting system can convert a subfair game into a profitable enterprise... — Probability and Measure (second edition, page 94) by Patrick Billingsley

The number of ‘guaranteed’ betting systems, the proliferation of myths and fallacies concerning such systems, and the countless people believing, propagating, venerating, protecting, and swearing by such systems are legion. Betting systems constitute one of the oldest delusions of gambling history. Betting systems votaries are spiritually akin to the proponents of perpetual motion machines, butting their heads against the second law of thermodynamics. — The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic (page 53) by Richard A. Epstein

Vegas Click also has a good expose of the gambler’s fallacy.

The Martingale

Every week I receive two or three emails asking me about the betting system by which a player doubles his/her bet after a loss. This system is generally played with an even money game such as the red/black bet in roulette or the pass/don’t pass bet in craps and is known as the Martingale. The idea is that by doubling your bet after a loss, you would always win enough to cover all past losses plus one unit. For example, if a player starts at $1 and loses four bets in a row, winning on the fifth, he will have lost $1+$2+$4+$8 = $15 on the four losing bets and won $16 on the fifth bet. The losses were covered and he had a profit of $1. The problem is that it is easier than you think to lose several bets in a row and run out of betting money after you’ve doubled it all away.

In order to prove this point, I created a program that simulated two systems, the Martingale and flat betting, and applied each by betting on the pass line in craps (which has a 49.29% probability of winning). The Martingale bettor would always start with a $1 bet and start the session with $255 which is enough to cover 8 losses in a row. The flat bettor would bet $1 every time. The Martingale player would play for 100 bets, or until he couldn’t cover the amount of a bet. In that case, he would stop playing and leave with the money he had left. In the event his 100th bet was a loss, he would keep betting until he either won a bet or couldn’t cover the next bet. The person flat betting would play 100 bets every time. I repeated this experiment for 1,000,000 sessions for both systems and tabulated the results. The graph below shows the results:

As you can see, the flat bettor has a bell curve with a peak at a loss of $1, and never strays very far from that peak. Usually the Martingale bettor would show a profit represented by the bell curve on the far right, peaking at $51; however, on the far left we see those times when he couldn’t cover a bet and walked away with a substantial loss. That happened for 19.65% of the sessions. Many believers in the Martingale mistakenly believe that the many wins will more than cover the few losses.

In this experiment, the average session loss for the flat bettor was $1.12, but was $4.20 for the Martingale bettor. In both cases, the ratio of money lost to money won was very close to 7/495, which is the house edge on the pass line bet in craps. This is not coincidental. No matter what system is used in the long run, this ratio will always approach the house edge. To prove this point consider the Martingale player on the pass line in craps who only desires to win $1, starts with a bet of $1, and has a bankroll of $2,047 to cover as many as 10 consecutive losses. The table below shows all possible outcomes with each probability, expected bet, and return.

Expand

Number of losses	Final outcome	Highest bet	Total bet	Net outcome	Probability	Expected bet	Expected return
0	Win	1	1	1	0.49292929	0.49292929	0.49292929
1	Win	2	3	1	0.24995001	0.74985002	0.24995001
2	Win	4	7	1	0.12674233	0.88719628	0.12674233
3	Win	8	15	1	0.06426732	0.96400981	0.06426732
4	Win	16	31	1	0.03258808	1.01023035	0.03258808
5	Win	32	63	1	0.01652446	1.04104089	0.01652446
6	Win	64	127	1	0.00837907	1.06414175	0.00837907
7	Win	128	255	1	0.00424878	1.08343900	0.00424878
8	Win	256	511	1	0.00215443	1.10091479	0.00215443
9	Win	512	1023	1	0.00109245	1.11757574	0.00109245
10	Win	1024	2047	1	0.00055395	1.13393379	0.00055395
10	Loss	1024	2047	-2047	0.00056984	1.16646467	-1.16646467
Total					1.00000000	11.81172639	-0.16703451

The expected bet is the product of the total bet and the probability. Likewise, the expected return is the product of the total return and the probability. The last row shows this Martingale bettor to have had an average total bet of 11.81172639 and an average loss of 0.16703451. Dividing the average loss by the average bet yields .01414141. We now divide 7 by 495 (the house edge on the pass line) and we again get 0.01414141! This shows that the Martingale is neither better nor worse than flat betting when measured by the ratio of expected loss to expected bet. All betting systems are equal to flat betting when compared this way, as they should be. In other words, all betting systems are equally worthless.

Here is another experiment I conducted earlier which proves the same thing as the experiment above. This one is played against roulette testing three different systems. Player 1 flat bet a $1 each time. He was not using a betting system. Player 2 started a series of trials with a bet of $1 and increased his wager by $1 after every winning bet. A lost bet would constitute the end of a series and the next bet would be $1. Player 3 also started a series of bets with a bet of $1 but used a doubling strategy in that after a losing bet of $x he would bet $2x (the Martingale). A winning bet would constitute the end of a series and the next bet would be $1. To make it realistic I put a maximum bet on player 3 of $200. Below are the results of that experiment:

Player 1

• Total amount wagered = $1,000,000,000
• Average wager = $1.00
• Total loss = $52,667,912
• Expected loss = $52,631,579
• Ratio of loss to money wagered = 0.052668

Player 2

• Total amount wagered = $1,899,943,349
• Average wager = $1.90
• Total loss = $100,056,549
• Expected loss = $99,997,018
• Ratio of loss to money wagered = 0.052663

Player 3

• Total amount wagered = $5,744,751,450
• Average wager = $5.74
• Total loss = $302,679,372
• Expected loss = $302,355,340
• Ratio of loss to money wagered = 0.052688

As you can see the ratio of money lost to money wagered is always close to the normal house advantage of 1/19 ≈ 0.052632. In conclusion, varying of bet size depending on recent past wins or losses makes no difference in the long run outcome and is no different than always betting the same.

A Third Experiment

“An Old Timer’s Guide to Beating the Craps Table” was a betting system that makes big promises about turning the craps tables into your own personal cash register. I offered to test his system for free. Here are the results.

The Cancellation Betting System

Despite all my warnings about betting systems, readers continually ask me to suggest one. To satisfy those who enjoy playing systems I have done a full explanation and analysis of the cancellation betting system.

Don't Waste Your Money

The Internet is full of people selling betting systems with promises of beating the casino at games of luck. Those who sell these systems are the present day equivalent of the 19th century snake oil salesmen. Under no circumstances should you waste one penny on any gambling system. Every time one has been put to a computer simulation it failed and showed the same ratio of losses to money bet as flat betting. If you ask a system salesman about this you likely will get a reply such as, “In real life nobody plays millions of trials in the casino.” You’re likely to also hear that his/her system works in real life, but not when used against a computer simulation. It is interesting that professionals use computers to model real-life problems in just about every field of study, yet when it comes to betting systems computer analysis becomes “worthless and unreliable,” as the salesman of one system put it. In any event, such an excuse misses the point; the computer runs billions of trials simply to prove that a system is unsound. If it won’t work on a computer, it won’t work in the casino.

Gambling systems have been around for as long as gambling has. No system has ever been proven to work. From an inside source, I know that system salesmen go from selling one kind of system to another. It is a dirty business by which they steal ideas from each other, and are always attempting to rehash old systems as something new.

System salesmen usually promise ridiculous advantages. For example, even with just a 1% advantage on an even money bet, it would not be difficult to parlay $100 into $1,000,000 by betting in proportion to bankroll. I was asked to prove this claim so I wrote a computer simulation based on the toss of a biased coin, with a 50.5% chance of winning. At all times the player bet 1% of his bankroll, rounded down to the nearest dollar. However, if a winning bet would put the player over $1,000,000 then he only bet as much as he needed to get to exactly $1,000,000. In addition, I ran simulations with a 2% advantage and for a starting bankroll of $1,000. Following are the results of all four tests.

$100 Bankroll, 1% Advantage

• Bets won = 7,182,811,698 (50.4999%)
• Bets lost = 7,040,599,544 (49.5001%)
• Player achieved $1,000,000 first = 79,438 (83.019%)
• Player went bust first = 16,249 (16.981%)
• Average number of bets to reach $1,000,000 = 174,972 (364.5 days at 8 hours per day, 60 bets per hour)

$100 Bankroll, 2% Advantage

• Bets won = 7,027,117,205 (51.0000%)
• Bets lost = 6,751,539,769 (49.0000%)
• Player achieved $1,000,000 first = 215,702 (98.099%)
• Player went bust first = 4,180 (1.901%)
• Average number of bets to reach $1,000,000 = 63,775 (132.9 days at 8 hours per day, 60 bets per hour)

$1,000 Bankroll, 1% Advantage

• Bets won = 5,213,026,190 (50.4999%)
• Bets lost = 5,109,817,544 (49.5001%)
• Player achieved $1,000,000 first = 74,818 (99.0285%)
• Player went bust first = 734 (0.9715%)
• Average number of bets to reach $1,000,000 = 137,208 (285.8 days at 8 hours per day, 60 bets per hour)

$1,000 Bankroll, 2% Advantage

• Bets won = 6,332,837,070 (50.9996%)
• Bets lost = 6,084,596,671 (49.0004%)
• Player achieved $1,000,000 first = 267,445 (99.9996%)
• Player went bust first = 1 (0.0004%)
• Average number of bets to reach $1,000,000 = 46,428 (96.7 days at 8 hours per day, 60 bets per hour)

These simulations prove that with just a small advantage of as little as 1% and a bankroll of as little as $100 you can grind your way to a million dollars through the gambling equivalent of compound interest. Yet you never hear of this actually happening. Could it be that these gambling systems don’t work after all?!

Here are some examples of system salesmen who try to take advantage of the mathematically challenged. There are hundreds of sites like these on the Internet, and this list is just a sampling. Frequently these sites vanish in the middle of the night, or suddenly direct traffic to a porn site. Please do let me know if any of these links don’t work or take you to other than the intended place.

Also, be warned that there are many others out there selling get rich quick gambling schemes that claim they are not betting systems. These sites usually throw out lots of fancy physics words like “chaos” and “fractals,” but display no evidence they know what these words mean. In the past, I have listed some such sites above but got angry letters claiming I shouldn’t criticize what I don’t understand. Personally, I feel that every method claiming an easy way to beat the casinos is a scam, and I don’t need to understand whatever the secret is. However, to be totally fair, I’ll only list betting systems above since those have been mathematically debunked by computer simulations. If anyone did find a truly easy way to beat the casinos, why aren’t they getting rich doing it?

The Wizard of Odds Challenge

For about six years, from 1999 to 2005, I offered $20,000 to anyone with a betting system that could show a profit over a one billion hand computer simulation. Here you can find the rules of the challenge. However, in all this time I only had one serious taker and hundreds of people wasting my time, pretending to be interested but never following through. So in January 2005, I took down the offer.

Does Progressive Blackjack Betting Work For Dummies

My webmaster, Michael Bluejay, now offers essentially the same challenge on his own site, VegasClick.com. If you accept his challenge, and win, I will be happy to state as such on the front page of this site, for proving the experts wrong.

A Fourth Experiment

Progressive Betting Methods

On October 19, 2004, Daniel Rainsong accepted my challenge. Mr. Rainsong was so confident he would win he doubled the stakes to my $40,000 against his $4,000. Although the rules of the challenge are based on craps or roulette I allowed this challenge to be based on blackjack rules with a house edge of only 0.26%. Can a betting system beat a game with a house edge this small and a 1,028 bet spread? Visit my Rainsong Challenge page for all the details.

Please, Don't Write

I no longer respond to e-mails that suggest a player can beat a negative expectation game over the long run with a betting system. Such e-mail is deleted on sight. I have said all I have to say on the topic here and in my Gambling FAQ.

Blackjack Betting Systems That Work

If you really want to discuss the topic, then I invite you not to do so at my forum at Wizard of Vegas, but instead one where you will be among like-minded people, like the forum atJohn Patrick's site (Update: This site has, not surprisingly, gone the way of the dodo bird).

Internal Links

• Oscar's Grind betting system.
• Labouchere betting system.
• Fibonacci betting system.

External Links

• Betting Systems and the House Edge, an article by Ph.D. mathematician Eliot Jacobson debunking betting systems.
• Betting Systems, an article by Michael Bluejay of VegasClick.
• German translation of this article.
• Debunking the “No Risk Don’t Come” betting system.

Written by: Michael Shackleford